Todd, Can You Make It Snow?

If I could control the weather, you bet it would include a few snowflakes. I understand the frustration among everyone who LOVES cold and snowy weather. We must remind ourselves that it's only late December/early January. We have plenty of winter to go.

With that said, I really don't like what I see in the long range. The needed ingredients to deliver cold, arctic air just isn't lining up anytime soon. That doesn't mean it won't get cold. I think we'll have a few shots of chilly air, but it won't be able to lock in and hold. Also, true arctic air will be cut off from coming south. Have you seen the temperatures in Alaska and western Canada lately? It's frigid. Can we get it to move south? I hope at some point, but not anytime soon.

There are two things I'm watching over the next week. The first is a round of rain Thursday into early Friday. Once that pushes east, there appears to be a strong area of low pressure aloft diving south. It may have enough moisture and cold air to squeeze out a few snow flurries near the Missouri border Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Once we get into Tuesday, the differences between the GFS and Euro are tremendous. The GFS shows little in the way of amplitude with an incoming trough. It brings in chilly air, but no real storm brewing.

The Euro on the other hand brings rain and thunderstorms with a round of snow wrapping around the back end across northern Arkansas.

Which will be correct? Stay tuned and don't get your hopes up. Happy New Year.

This is called the 500mb map and it shows where storm systems are located and how the jet is configured. This is about 20 thousand feet up. You can easily depict the ridges and troughs. Those red and purplish areas show were these strong areas of low pressure are located aloft. If you want stormy weather, you want to be within or near that! The European on Tuesday January 7th has a deep trough and strong storm system moving through the area. This is the kind of system which can bring rain and thunderstorms followed by a quick shot of cold air and MAYBE snow on the back end. IF that happens, northern Arkansas would be favored.

The GFS during that same time period says "NO WAY". It shows a trough moving through the central and eastern United States, but with little amplitude compared to the Euro. This does deliver cold air, but little if any moisture.